Pradeep Bhandari released JAN KI BAAT’s second Opinion Poll for Karnataka Elections 2023 on ASIANET-SUVARNA NEWS on May 4th, 2023. This Opinion Poll survey was conducted between April 15th and May 1st, after ticket distribution and nomination filing by key candidates of three major political parties in the state.
JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll projection says BJP is more likely to form government in Karnataka with a range of 100-114 seats.
In this nail-biter election, as per JAN KI BAAT’s second Opinion Poll, Congress is projected to get anywhere between 86 – 98 seats and JDS could get seat-share in the range of 20-26 seats and others could land up with 0-5 seats.
FIRST OPINION POLL’S RESULTS:
In the first opinion poll which was released by Pradeep Bhandari on April 15, 2023 – BJP’s projected seat-share range was 98-109 seats, Congress’ projected seat-share range was 89 – 97 seats and JDS’ projected seat-share range was 25-29
VOTE-SHARE PROJECTION
As per JAN KI BAAT’s second Opinion Poll, BJP is projected to get a vote-share of 38% – 40.5% in Karnataka Elections 2023. Congress could get projected vote- share in the range of 38.5% – 41.5% and JDS’ projected vote-share is expected to be anywhere between 14%-16.5% in Karnataka Elections 2023.
LINGAYAT VOTES STILL WITH BJP AFTER SHETTAR & SAVADI’S EXIT FROM BJP?
BJP is projected to get major share or LINGAYAT votes and the exit of Jagadish Shettar and Laxman Savadi hasn’t caused any major split in Lingayat votes. In fact, in Hubbali Dharwad Central Constituency – Jagadish Shettar could lose to BJP’s Mahesh Tenginkai.
3 REGIONS. 1 BIG HEADLINE
Findings of JAN KI BAAT’s second Opinion Poll’s are similar to the first Opinion Poll – it reiterates that the saffron party could better its performance by a slender margin in the Vokkaliga dominated belt of Old Mysuru region. It is projected to get around 14 seats in this JDS stronghold. Analysis of Opinion Poll 2’s data shows – a shrinking JDS is helping both Congress and BJP gain in the region. Congress is projected to get 26 seats in the region and JDS could end up with 17 seats. It’s interesting to note that Congress is doing way better than JDS in Old Mysuru region
BJP is projected to stay in the lead because it’s doing well in Kittur Karnataka and Coastal Karnataka.
In Coastal Karnataka, JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll projection for a second time shows that BJP could end up winning in 15 seats out of 19 seats in the region.
CASTE-WISE PROJECTION
Lingayats and Marathas are rallying behind BJP in Karnataka. As per JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll – 70% amongst Lingayats prefer BJP over other parties.
While 58% amongst Vokkaligas are with JDS, BJP & INC could create a small dent. As per JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll 24% among Vokkaliga community could go with BJP this and Congress could just be preferred by 18% Vokkaliga voters. Meanwhile, in the ST community, 57% could go with Congress, 30% with BJP & 13% with JDS. In the SC’s , 32% Non Lambani’s are preferring BJP & 72% Lambani’s are preferring the Congress.
WHO’S WINNING VIP SEATS?
a) CM Basvaraj Bomai is leading from Shiggaon
b) DK Shivakumar leading from Kanakapura
c) Jagadish Shettar is losing from Hubli Dharwad Central
d) BS Yedurappa’s son BY Vijayendra is leading from Shikaripura
e) V Somanna of the BJP is leading from Chamrajnagar
WHAT CHANGED BETWEEN OPINION POLL 1 AND OPINION POLL 2?
1) JDS shrank further in the Old Mysore Belt post ticket distribution
2) BJP & INC vote share in the overall state has increased because of weakening of JDS
3) BJP has managed to reduce the damage of anti – incumbency after fielding more than 50 new faces in its ticket distribution.
4) Congress has consolidated the Kurba & Muslim vote further
5) BJP has prevented any major shift of Lingayat votes to INC
6) Both BJP & INC has increased their possible Vokkaliga votes polled compared to last time.
7) BJP has regained ground in Central Karnataka
8) Congress & BJP have increased their seat share in Old Mysuru region
9) BJP has strengthened its grip in Kittur Karnataka marginally
10) Congress continues to lead in Hyderabad Karnataka belt
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