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Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll 2023: Pradeep Bhandari decodes the numbers & the scenarios

Pradeep Bhandari’s in-depth analysis of Jan Ki Baat’s Exit Poll projections for 2023 assembly elections

As we plunge into the post-election fervor and await the final results of December 3rd, I present to you the comprehensive analysis of the results of Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll 2023. As the Founder of Jan Ki Baat, I take immense pride in our dedicated data analysts who have meticulously combed through the intricacies of the electoral battlegrounds of M.P, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, Telangana and Mizoram. Team Jan Ki Baat’s ground work provides insights that transcend mere numbers.

Madhya Pradesh: Women voters could help BJP edge out

Madhya Pradesh, with its 40 closely contested seats, sets the stage for a nail-biting finish. Our data reveals a nuanced projection for the BJP. Should they secure less than 30% of these close margin seats, their tally is predicted to fall below 106. However, a robust performance, clinching 85% of the close-margin seats, could catapult them to a formidable 130 or beyond. Strikingly, our analysts assert that the magic figure of 150 appears elusive for the BJP, grounding their analysis in the accuracy of past predictions in the 2018 Madhya Pradesh elections.

Once again, here are the possible scenarios as per Jan Ki Baat’s research and analysis

1) If BJP wins less than 30% of the 40 close margin seats (where victory margins are lesser than 10K), it’s tally is likely to be less than 106

2) If BJP wins 45% of the seats (close margin), it could get up to 115 seats

3) If BJP wins 55% of these seats, it is likely to get more than 120 seats

4) If BJP ends up winning 70% of these seats, it is likely to cross the 125 mark

5) If BJP ends up winning 85% of these seats, it could win over 130 seats

Chhatisgarh: BJP’s Uphill Battle

Chhatisgarh, with 15 seats hanging in the balance, paints a challenging picture for the BJP. Winning 70% of these close margin seats could propel them to 45 seats, while a more moderate 50% victory in these seats could leave them at 40. Falling short of the 50% mark in these close contests, our data suggests, forecloses the possibility of the BJP reaching the 50-seat milestone in Chhatisgarh.

Rajasthan: 27 seats hold key

In the royal expanse of Rajasthan, the battle for 27 closely contested seats is a test of percentages for the BJP. Losing in 80% of these seats could see their tally scraping the 99/100 mark, while a 50% win in these seats could nudge them to around 107 seats. A more assertive 60% victory in these seats will place them comfortably in the range of 120/122. Significantly, our data researchers dismiss the prospect of the BJP securing fewer seats than the Congress in Rajasthan, drawing on their meticulous constituency-wise mapping.

Telangana: The North’s Dilemma

The intriguing dynamics of Telangana, particularly in its 14 seats in Northern Telangana which is considered to be KCR’s stronghold, showcase a scenario where the Congress is gaining ground. Securing 50% of these seats in the North, could propel Congress beyond 60 seats, a 50% win in these seats, will still help Congress maintain a strong position at 55 seats, and even a modest 34% win in North Telangana will keep them above 49 but below 52. This delicate interplay in North Telangana adds a layer of complexity to the electoral landscape.

Mizoram: ZPM’s Unchallenged Ascendancy

In Mizoram, devoid of close-margin seats, the Zoram People’s Movement (ZPM) emerges as the uncontested force set to form the government. The absence of tight races solidifies our conviction in this prediction.

As we wrap up this in-depth analysis, I extend my heartfelt gratitude for the unwavering support to #JanKiBaatExitPoll2023. Our commitment to providing accurate and insightful analyses remains steadfast, and we eagerly await the unfolding of election results on December 3rd , to see how closely reality aligns with our projections.


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