Pradeep Bhandari has hit ground zero for his election travel. In this travel he will traversing the length and breadth of India. He was in Uttar Pradesh for a period of 7 days with team Jan Ki Baat. In the first episode of Pradeep Predicts, Pradeep Bhandari predicts RaeBareli, a Congress stronghold, a seat which has never been lost by Sonia Gandhi since she contested. The Jan Ki Baat sample size for Rae Bareli was 1500.
Prediction Model used: Jan Ki Baat Probability Map Of Outcome Model.
There is 90% probability that #SoniaGandhi will lose #Raebareli if she is to contest in 2024. 60% women, & 65% Youth want change in Raebareli. There is Modi wave in Raebareli as per our data( Jan Ki Baat).
Watch Episode 1 of 'Pradeep Predicts' which analyses Jan Ki BaatтАж pic.twitter.com/wRXYGSGqES
— Pradeep Bhandari(рдкреНрд░рджреАрдк рднрдВрдбрд╛рд░реА)?? (@pradip103) January 31, 2024
Jan Ki Baat Prediction
90% Probability Sonia Gandhi will lose Rae Bareli
Swing factor 1: 60% Women sampled support Prime Minister Narendra Modi for welfare.
Swing factor 2: 65% Youth sampled, support PM Modi. They want development akin to Varanasi in RaeBareli.
Causating factor 1: Sonia Gandhi’s physical inaccessability in Constituency
Causating factor 2: Ram Mandir in Ayodhya has drifted 4% erstwhile Congress voters.
Pradeep’s Psephological Take┬а
The people in RaeBareli want change. They want vikas. They see development surplus in Varanasi and feel development deprivation in RaeBareli. Only if BJP fields a very weak candidate, & conducts a limited campaign, & avoids booth to booth mapping can Gandhi family retain RaeBareli. Victory of Congress in RaeBareli will depend on BJP, not Congress.
