Voice Of The People

90% Probability Sonia Gandhi will lose RaeBareli: Jan Ki Baat

Pradeep Bhandari has hit ground zero for his election travel. In this travel he will traversing the length and breadth of India. He was in Uttar Pradesh for a period of 7 days with team Jan Ki Baat. In the first episode of Pradeep Predicts, Pradeep Bhandari predicts RaeBareli, a Congress stronghold, a seat which has never been lost by Sonia Gandhi since she contested. The Jan Ki Baat sample size for Rae Bareli was 1500.

Prediction Model used: Jan Ki Baat Probability Map Of Outcome Model.

Jan Ki Baat Prediction

90% Probability Sonia Gandhi will lose Rae Bareli

Swing factor 1: 60% Women sampled support Prime Minister Narendra Modi for welfare.

Swing factor 2: 65% Youth sampled, support PM Modi. They want development akin to Varanasi in RaeBareli.

Causating factor 1: Sonia Gandhi’s physical inaccessability in Constituency

Causating factor 2: Ram Mandir in Ayodhya has drifted 4% erstwhile Congress voters.

Pradeep’s Psephological Take 

The people in RaeBareli want change. They want vikas. They see development surplus in Varanasi and feel development deprivation in RaeBareli. Only if BJP fields a very weak candidate, & conducts a limited campaign, & avoids booth to booth mapping can Gandhi family retain RaeBareli. Victory of Congress in RaeBareli will depend on BJP, not Congress.


Must Read