Pradeep Bhandari, the founder of Jan Ki Baat, India’s leading psephological company, has earned a reputation for accurate election predictions, having correctly forecasted 37 elections over the past nine years. His much-anticipated exit poll for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has been released, painting a compelling picture of a decisive victory for the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Methodology and Sample Size
The exit poll is based on a substantial sample size of 3.5 lakh respondents, meticulously collected through random purposive sampling conducted state-wise, constituency-wise, and phase-wise. This on-ground data collection was carried out by a dedicated team of Jan Ki Baat data researchers. The projections were generated using the sophisticated Jan Ki Baat Probability Map of Outcome model, ensuring a high degree of accuracy.
Overall Projections
According to the exit poll, the NDA is projected to secure a commanding 377 seats, with a margin of error of ±15 seats. This indicates a significant increase from their previous term, showcasing a clear mandate from the Indian electorate. In terms of vote share, the NDA is expected to garner approximately 50% of the votes, with a margin of error of ±1%.
The opposition INDIA alliance is projected to win 151 seats, with a margin of error of ±10 seats, and a vote share of 35% (±1%). Other parties are expected to secure around 15 seats (±5), with a vote share of 15% (±1%).
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) alone is set to secure 327 seats, with a margin of error of ±15 seats, indicating a substantial lead over the Indian National Congress (INC), which is projected to win 52 seats (±10). The BJP is expected to receive between 41% and 43% of the votes, while the INC is anticipated to secure between 17% and 19%
Major States Breakdown
Uttar Pradesh
In Uttar Pradesh, the NDA is projected to dominate with the BJP expected to win between 64 to 70 seats. Allies such as Apna Dal and RLD are projected to secure 2 seats each, with SBSP possibly winning 0 to 1 seat. The INC is likely to win just 1 seat, while the SP, part of the INDIA alliance, is expected to secure between 5 to 11 seats. Overall, the NDA is projected to win between 68 to 74 seats, leaving the INDIA alliance with 6 to 12 seats.
Maharashtra
In Maharashtra, the BJP is projected to win between 25 to 26 seats. NDA allies such as the NCP (Ajit Pawar faction) are expected to secure 2 to 4 seats, and the Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction) is projected to win between 7 to 10 seats. The UPA, comprising the INC and the Sharad Pawar faction of the NCP, is expected to win between 9 to 3 and 3 to 2 seats respectively. Overall, the NDA is projected to secure between 34 to 41 seats, while the INDIA alliance is likely to win between 9 to 14 seats.
West Bengal
In West Bengal, the BJP is projected to win between 21 to 26 seats. The INC is expected to win 0 to 2 seats, while the TMC is likely to secure between 16 to 18 seats. The CPM is projected to win up to 1 seat.
Karnataka
In Karnataka, the BJP is expected to win between 19 to 20 seats. The INC is projected to secure between 5 to 7 seats, while the JDS is likely to win between 2 to 3 seats. Overall, the NDA is projected to secure between 21 to 23 seats, with the INDIA alliance winning 7 to 5 seats.
Bihar
In Bihar, the NDA is projected to secure between 32 to 37 seats, with the BJP expected to win between 14 to 17 seats. Allies such as the JDU are projected to win 12 to 14 seats, LJP 4 to 5 seats, and HAM 1 seat. The RJD is expected to win between 2 to 6 seats, while the INC is projected to secure between 1 to 2 seats. The INDIA alliance is likely to win between 3 to 7 seats.
Gujarat
In Gujarat, the BJP is projected to make a clean sweep, winning all 26 seats, leaving the INC with no representation.
Rajasthan
In Rajasthan, the BJP is expected to dominate, winning between 21 to 23 seats, while the INC is projected to secure between 2 to 4 seats.
Region and Age Demographics
Urban vs Rural Areas
The NDA is projected to secure 65% of the vote share in urban areas, while the INDIA alliance is expected to win 25%, and Others 10%. In rural areas, the NDA’s dominance is even more pronounced, with a projected vote share of 74%, compared to 21% for the INDIA alliance and 5% for Others.
Age Demographics
Among middle-aged men (40-60 years), the NDA is projected to secure 50% of the votes, with the INDIA alliance winning 35%, and Others 15%. For elderly men (60+ years), the NDA’s vote share increases to 60%, while the INDIA alliance secures 32%, and Others 8%. Among the youth (18-35 years), the NDA is projected to win 44% of the votes, with the INDIA alliance close behind at 40%, and Others at 16%.
Regional Breakdown
Southern India (129 seats): BJP is projected to win 34 seats (±3), and INC 33 seats (±4).
Western India (101 seats): BJP is expected to secure 75 seats (±2), and INC 6 seats (±1).
Eastern India (117 seats): BJP is projected to win 66 seats (±5), and INC 3 seats (±1).
Northeast (25 seats): BJP is expected to secure 14 seats, and INC 4 seats.
Central India (40 seats): BJP is projected to win 39-40 seats, with INC securing 0-1 seats.
Northern India (118 seats): BJP is expected to win 88 seats (±3), and INC 10 seats (±1).
Union Territories (13 seats): BJP is projected to secure 11 seats (±1), and INC 1 seat (±1).
The 2024 Lok Sabha elections exit poll by Jan Ki Baat suggests a strong wave in favor of the NDA, reflecting a significant shift in voter sentiment towards the incumbent government. With the BJP expected to maintain a stronghold in several key states and regions, the projections indicate a robust mandate for Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s leadership and the policies of the NDA.
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