KAIRANA EXIT POLL BY JAN KI BAAT: RLD SET TO DEFEAT BJP IN KAIRANA
10 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM KAIRANA
1. Muslim voters rallying behind united Opposition to defeat BJP in large numbers.
” It is a fight for Vakar, Varchasva”
2. More than 50% Jat rallying behind RLD because of Ajit Singh visiting each house .
3. Lower caste Dalit going to United Opposition because of
A. Mayawati
B. Bhim army impact in youth voters
C. A limited level of insecurity in some of them
4. core voters of BJP – Saini, Brahman, Baniya Kashyap have not voted in large numbers
(. 2019 is away)
5. After dysfunctional EVM and delay , the core voters have shown less tendency to come back and vote in 45 degree Celsius compared to Muslim voters.
6. As per Empty Box Theory
A normal and even polling booth is seen to be filled more by Muslim, Jat, SC voters.
7. Main issue that is of concern is that sugarcane farmers are not receiving payment on time.( Promised 14 days)
8. Improvement in law and order and women security is accepted by people across caste and religion
9. “Vidhva”pension and “Vriddha” pension has been stopped.
10. 2019 in UP will be how Other Caste consolidate with BJP. BJP needs to have a vote share of 50% to regain Uttar Pradesh with more than 67 seats.
Number analysis from ground –
16 lakh 80k – 17L average total voters average-
- Muslims -5.70l
- Jat – 1.6l
- Kashyap- 2l
- Dalit Jatav -1.6l
- Non jatav -90k
- Gurjar -1.4l
- Saini-1l
- Baniya-65k
- Brahman-60k
- Thakur- 35k
- Other’s( prajapati, gadaria, bawaria, jains., Punjabi …) -1l
Voting percentage -55 % till 5 pm
Total voters voting in Kairana are 10.6 lakh approx.(taking into account the percentage post 5 pm)
1. Muslim voters average ( 4 lakh )-
RLD – 3 lakh 60k.(90%)
BJP – 40k
2. Jat voters – 96k average
RLD- (60%)- 57,400
BJP -(40%)- 38,600 voters
3 SC –
3.1. Jatav voters – 1 lakh 5 thousand
RLD-(80%)-84,000
BJP(20%) – 21,000
3.2. non Jatav voters- 58,500
RLD- 40 – 23,400
BJP – 60-35,100
4. Gurjar voters-98,000
RLD-5,000(5%)
BJP- 93,000(95%)
5. Saini total -60k
RLD- 8%- 6,000
BJP -92%- 54,000
6.Brahmin Baniya- 50%- 60k
BJP – 57,000(95%)
RLD-3,000(5%)
7. OTHERS ( 50%) – 50,000
BJP – 45,000(90%)
RLD- 5,000(10%)
8.THAKUR(70%) -24,500
BJP – 24,000(98%)
RLD- 500(2%)
9.Kashyap- 1.2L
RLD- 20k(10%)
BJP- 1 lakh( 90%)
Total( average)-
RLD-5.56L
BJP – 5.2 L
taking a buffer of 20-25k votes
taking a buffer of 20-25k votes
When Can Exit Poll Go wrong-
- Close polling decision are left to administrative discretion.
– PRADIP BHANDARI ( FOUNDER CEO)
-AKRITI BHATIA(FOUNDING PARTNER)
– PRINCE BAHADUR SINGH
– RAHUL KUMAR
– ANUSHREE RASTOGI
– TEHSEEN RAZA
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