Pradeep Bhandari and Jan ki baat’s election prediction
Here is the snapshot of jan ki baat’s election prediction track record since 2017
1- UP election 2017: Jan ki baat in its opinion poll with Bloomberg TV India predicted an absolute majority for the BJP in 2017, where other pollsters gave less than 200 to BJP(BJP not crossing majority and single largest party). Predicting an opinion poll (pre election broadcast) is considered a complex psephological exercise as per global standards. Even in the exit poll Jan ki baat predicted absolute majority for the BJP. Read details below :
https://jankibaat.com/2017/03/26/how-did-jan-ki-baat-got-it-all-right-on-up-elections-2017/
2- In the Delhi MCD election 2017 Jan ki Baat was closest to the actual Result.
3- In Gujarat assembly election 2017 both in its opinion and exit poll broadcast Jan ki Baat predicted the return of BJP in Gujarat and also estimated a correct vote share trend.
4- Jan ki baat has a unique ability to predict seat wise election outcome and also predict outcome of bypolls. It was able to predict Bawana bypoll in Delhi, Gorakhpur, Phulpur bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, Pakura, Odisha bypoll accurately with correct lead margins. It has predicted all the bypolls attempted till now accurately. Read more to find out:
https://jankibaat.com/2017/08/24/exit-poll-aap-inc-bjp-bawana/
5- In the Tripura election 2018, Jan ki baat was the only agency in India to predict the absolute majority for the BJP in its opinion poll broadcast. Even in the exit poll it predicted 100% accurate seat share and vote share. Read more to find out:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-demolishes-25-year-old-red-bastion-in-tripura-exit-polls/articleshow/63099152.cms
6- In Karnataka election 2018, while some pollsters were predicting a Congress win, others a BJP victory, Jan ki Baat predicted 100% accurate seat share, trend both in the opinion poll and the exit poll. It was the only agency in India to come with an exact prediction both in opinion and exit polls. It changed the grammar of psephological analysis by predicting seat wise outcomes with its channel partner Republic Media Network. Read more to find out:
https://www.republicworld.com/karnataka-elections-2018/election-news/karnataka-elections-2018-jan-ki-baats-exit-poll-says-the-bjp-will-emerge-as-the-single-largest-party.html
7- In the elections held in the state of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Nagaland and Telangana jan ki baat was able to predict Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Nagaland seat share, votes share accurately, while all the agencies except jan ki baat predicted a two third majority for the Congress, jan ki baat was the only agency which predicted a maximum of 101 for the Congress in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, like every other agency it was able to predict a correct seat share trend, but on top of it, it even predicted an absolutely correct vote share trend (Madhya Pradesh was the unique election where congress won more seats than the BJP but fell short of the halfway majority mark, and garnered a lesser vote share than the BJP. Read more to find out:
8- In the Lok sabha elections, Jan ki Baat was the only agency in India that predicted a 300+ for the NDA in its pre poll broadcast (opinion poll). Pradeep Bhandari travelled more than 400 constituency personally during this psephological exercise. Both in the exit, & opinion poll it maintained a 300+ for the NDA.
Jan ki Baat, in a few short years, has established a reputation as a very credible pollster – @pradip103 presented results of his extensive polling yesterday on @republic ; The first opinion poll to suggest a comfortable 300+ margin for the NDA – We all await 23rd May ! pic.twitter.com/OLuVV2aU3O
— Surjit Bhalla (@surjitbhalla) April 5, 2019
9- In Maharashtra, it predicted a correct overall trend of BJP Shiv sena returning back to power, however a break up of the BJP-Sena alliance changed the government formation dynamics. Read more to find out:
https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/haryana-assembly-election-maharashtra-assembly-election-2019-updates-republic-tv-opinion-poll-live-jan-ki-baat-bjp-congress/1738566/
10- In the Jharkhand election 2019, Jan ki Baat was the only agency in India which predicted a 100% accurate seat share trend, vote share, loss of then Chief Minister Raghuvar Das against Saryu Rai. Read more to find out:
11- Its accuracy trend continues in the Delhi assembly election 2020. Apart from predicting a sweep for the AAP in Delhi, it was the only agency to predict a less than 5% vote share for the Congress, and a late evening surge on the voting day for the AAP. (Contrary to the media narrative of late evening surge of the BJP). Read more to find out:
12- In Bihar assembly 2020, while many agencies predicted a sweep for the RJD, Jan ki Baat was closest to the reality by predicting a neck and neck contest with RJD being the single largest party.
To give the result near to accuracy means the ground work which @jankibaat1 team have done in past 1.5 months for #BiharElectionResults2020. The team has been led superbly by @pradip103 bhai despite so many hiccups , the team delivered for what it was formed in Bihar.
Keep it up pic.twitter.com/01N5yUAJYe— Ashish (@go4ashi) November 11, 2020
13- GHMC Elections 2020 saw a high voltage battle between the BJP & TRS. The elections was considered to be a litmus test for the BJP in its mission to mark it’s foothold in Telangana. Jan Ki Baat exit poll could predict an accurate seat share vote share trend in GHMC Hyderabad Elections 2020. It was the only poll which gave 40+ to the BJP, along with projecting TRS as the single largest party in its exit poll.The projections were closest to the actual result. Read more details below:
Once again, "exact poll" by @pradip103
Efforts of few ppl to hinder his work during Bihar elections as well as ystrday amidst the GHMC elections failed! Seriously, nothing can break his dedication! Legacy of perfection by @jankibaat1 continues!
"Inspiration" for a reason!!
— Amaya🪄 (@amaya_3182) December 4, 2020
Proud of my team @jankibaat1 for the fact that we got the vote share 100% correct. Also happy to be only exit poll to give 40+ seats to BJP- a saffron surge in #GHMC elections. We will work harder 2 further increase our accuracy in seats which get decided with less than 500 votes
— Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)🇮🇳 (@pradip103) December 4, 2020
#BJPSouthEntry | GHMC results have shown that there is massive anti-incumbency against the TRS government, the BJP has capitalised on that. Telangana will be the second state after Karnataka where BJP will be main player: @pradip103 – Founder, Jan ki Baat pic.twitter.com/UyMtODUZF2
— Republic (@republic) December 4, 2020
14- In Bengal, even though all the prominent agencies missed the election accurate estimation of the voter behaviour including Jan ki Baat, Jan ki Baat still managed to predict the loss of Mamta Banerjee in Nandigram.
15- In Assam assembly election 2021, it predicted 100% accuracy of seat share record and vote share record. It also predicted all the seats accurately including an increased lead margin for victory for Himanta Biswa Sarma from Jhalukbari. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, like other agencies its projection was near to the final output. Pondicherry it’s projection was near to final outcome. Read more to find out:
16- In the recently concluded UP assembly election 2022, while some agencies were predicted more than 300 for BJP at 43% vote share, Jan ki Baat was the only agency which predicted less than 280 for the BJP at 41% – 42% vote share. The final results matched Jan ki Baat opinion poll trend, and exit poll projection. Read more to find out:
17- In Punjab, since its opinion poll broadcast in December, every poll of Jan ki Baat predicted an absolute majority for the AAP, and the exit poll projection predicted a sweep for AAP (80+, at more than 41% vote share). In Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand, it predicted a correct vote share and seat share trend in its exit poll. In Uttarakhand while many pollsters were predicting a hung house, or a congress victory, Jan ki Baat since its opinion poll broadcast in December has been maintaining an edge to the BJP in the electoral battle. Read more to find out:
100% ACCURACY RATE IN SEAT SHARE IN TRIPURA
In Tripura, Pradeep Bhandari led JAN KI BAAT predicted 30-35 seats for BJP+ in his Opinion Poll, 29 – 40 seats for BJP+ in Exit Poll – final results match the Exit Poll prediction accurately. BJP+ is set to form government for a second consecutive time in Tripura by winning 33 seats. Left and Congress alliance has been restricted to 14 seats, as predicted by Pradeep Bhandari in JAN KI BAAT’s Exit Poll. Pradeep Bhandari predicted a seat share range of 09-16 for CPM+ in Tripura. Pradyot Debbarma’s TIPRA or TMP has made an impact in the tribal cluster of Tripura by winning 13 seats. JAN KI BAAT Exit Poll predicted seat share range of 10-14 for TIPRA.
100% ACCURATE VOTESHARE PREDICTION
BJP+ voteshare in Tripura is 40.23%, Pradeep Bhandari predicted range of 39% – 43% for BJP+ in the Exit Poll.
BANG ON IN NAGALAND
In Nagaland, NDPP-BJP have swept the elections by winning 37 seats. Pradeep Bhandari predicted 35-45 seats for BJP+ in Nagaland and said BJP+ will form government in the state
CORRECT TREND PREDICTED IN MEGHALAYA
JAN KI BAAT predicted Hung House in Meghalaya and said post poll alliance will be key in government formation. In Meghalaya, no party attained majority but NPP was single largest with 26 seats. NPP is set to form government with BJP in the state
With more than 95% accuracy record ability to predict an accurate trend both in opinion and exit poll, and predicting outcome based on indigenously designed ‘Probability map of Outcome’ model which is a grounds up model designed by Pradeep Bhandari and team which maps quantitative factors and behavioural choices of voters across different dimensions. Jan ki Baat will continue to serve the people of India by accurately reflecting their public opinion, because we believe- ‘People’s interest is National interest. We welcome suggestions on [email protected] .
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