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JAN KI BAAT ELECTION PREDICTION: HISTORICAL FACTSHEET

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Pradeep Bhandari and Jan ki baat’s election prediction

Here is the snapshot of jan ki baat’s election prediction track record since 2017

1- UP election 2017: Jan ki baat in its opinion poll with Bloomberg TV India predicted an absolute majority for the BJP in 2017, where other pollsters gave less than 200 to BJP(BJP not crossing majority and single largest party). Predicting an opinion poll (pre election broadcast) is considered a complex psephological exercise as per global standards. Even in the exit poll Jan ki baat predicted absolute majority for the BJP. Read details below :
https://jankibaat.com/2017/03/26/how-did-jan-ki-baat-got-it-all-right-on-up-elections-2017/

2- In the Delhi MCD election 2017 Jan ki Baat was closest to the actual Result.

https://www.hindustantimes.com/delhi/mcd-election-2017-turnout-remains-low-exit-polls-predict-bjp-win-kejriwal-rout/story-gayMFsDAcJy5EKLJWK1KaM.html

3- In Gujarat assembly election 2017 both in its opinion and exit poll broadcast Jan ki Baat predicted the return of BJP in Gujarat and also estimated a correct vote share trend.

4- Jan ki baat has a unique ability to predict seat wise election outcome and also predict outcome of bypolls. It was able to predict Bawana bypoll in Delhi, Gorakhpur, Phulpur bypolls in Uttar Pradesh, Pakura, Odisha bypoll accurately with correct lead margins. It has predicted all the bypolls attempted till now accurately. Read more to find out:
https://jankibaat.com/2017/08/24/exit-poll-aap-inc-bjp-bawana/

5- In the Tripura election 2018, Jan ki baat was the only agency in India to predict the absolute majority for the BJP in its opinion poll broadcast. Even in the exit poll it predicted 100% accurate seat share and vote share. Read more to find out:
https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/bjp-demolishes-25-year-old-red-bastion-in-tripura-exit-polls/articleshow/63099152.cms

6- In Karnataka election 2018, while some pollsters were predicting a Congress win, others a BJP victory, Jan ki Baat predicted 100% accurate seat share, trend both in the opinion poll and the exit poll. It was the only agency in India to come with an exact prediction both in opinion and exit polls. It changed the grammar of psephological analysis by predicting seat wise outcomes with its channel partner Republic Media Network. Read more to find out:
https://www.republicworld.com/karnataka-elections-2018/election-news/karnataka-elections-2018-jan-ki-baats-exit-poll-says-the-bjp-will-emerge-as-the-single-largest-party.html

7- In the elections held in the state of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chattisgarh, Nagaland and Telangana jan ki baat was able to predict Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Nagaland seat share, votes share accurately, while all the agencies except jan ki baat predicted a two third majority for the Congress, jan ki baat was the only agency which predicted a maximum of 101 for the Congress in Rajasthan. In Madhya Pradesh, like every other agency it was able to predict a correct seat share trend, but on top of it, it even predicted an absolutely correct vote share trend (Madhya Pradesh was the unique election where congress won more seats than the BJP but fell short of the halfway majority mark, and garnered a lesser vote share than the BJP. Read more to find out:

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/madhya-pradesh-exit-poll-2018-live-updates/articleshow/66988417.cms

8- In the Lok sabha elections, Jan ki Baat was the only agency in India that predicted a 300+ for the NDA in its pre poll broadcast (opinion poll). Pradeep Bhandari travelled more than 400 constituency personally during this psephological exercise. Both  in the exit, & opinion poll it maintained a 300+ for the NDA.

9- In Maharashtra, it predicted a correct overall trend of BJP Shiv sena returning back to power, however a break up of the BJP-Sena alliance changed the government formation dynamics. Read more to find out:
https://www.financialexpress.com/india-news/haryana-assembly-election-maharashtra-assembly-election-2019-updates-republic-tv-opinion-poll-live-jan-ki-baat-bjp-congress/1738566/

10- In the Jharkhand election 2019, Jan ki Baat was the only agency in India which predicted a 100% accurate seat share trend, vote share, loss of then Chief Minister Raghuvar Das against Saryu Rai. Read more to find out:

https://www.republicworld.com/india-news/elections/republic-jan-ki-baat-exit-poll-predict-jharkhand-elections-with-100-percent.html

11- Its accuracy trend continues in the Delhi assembly election 2020. Apart from predicting a sweep for the AAP in Delhi, it was the only agency to predict a less than 5% vote share for the Congress, and a late evening surge on the voting day for the AAP. (Contrary to the media narrative of late evening surge of the BJP). Read more to find out:

https://www.republicworld.com/election-news/delhi-assembly-elections/delhi-exit-poll-jan-ki-baat-projects-reduced-majority-for-aap.html

12- In Bihar assembly 2020, while many agencies predicted a sweep for the RJD, Jan ki Baat was closest to the reality by predicting a neck and neck contest with RJD being the single largest party.

13- GHMC Elections 2020 saw a high voltage battle between the BJP & TRS. The elections was considered to be a litmus test for the BJP in its mission to mark it’s foothold in Telangana. Jan Ki Baat exit poll could predict an accurate seat share vote share trend in GHMC Hyderabad Elections 2020. It was the only poll which gave 40+ to the BJP, along with projecting TRS as the single largest party in its exit poll.The projections were closest to the actual result. Read more details below:

14- In Bengal, even though all the prominent agencies missed the election accurate estimation of the voter behaviour including Jan ki Baat, Jan ki Baat still managed to predict the loss of Mamta Banerjee in Nandigram.

15- In Assam assembly election 2021, it predicted 100% accuracy of seat share record and vote share record. It also predicted all the seats accurately including an increased lead margin for victory for Himanta Biswa Sarma from Jhalukbari. In Kerala, Tamil Nadu, like other agencies its projection was near to the final output. Pondicherry it’s projection was near to final outcome. Read more to find out:

16- In the recently concluded UP assembly election 2022, while some agencies were predicted more than 300 for BJP at 43% vote share, Jan ki Baat was the only agency which predicted less than 280 for the BJP at 41% – 42% vote share. The final results matched Jan ki Baat opinion poll trend, and exit poll projection. Read more to find out:

https://www.exchange4media.com/industry-briefing-news/india-news-jan-ki-baat-exit-poll-predictions-proved-true-118984.html

17- In Punjab, since its opinion poll broadcast in December, every poll of Jan ki Baat predicted an absolute majority for the AAP, and the exit poll projection predicted a sweep for AAP (80+, at more than 41% vote share). In Goa, Manipur and Uttarakhand, it predicted a correct vote share and seat share trend in its exit poll. In Uttarakhand while many pollsters were predicting a hung house, or a congress victory, Jan ki Baat since its opinion poll broadcast in December has been maintaining an edge to the BJP in the electoral battle. Read more to find out:

https://www.exchange4media.com/industry-briefing-news/india-news-jan-ki-baat-exit-poll-predictions-proved-true-118984.html

With more than 95% accuracy record ability to predict an accurate trend both in opinion and exit poll, and predicting outcome based on indigenously designed ‘Probability map of Outcome’ model which is a grounds up model designed by Pradeep Bhandari and team which maps quantitative factors and behavioural choices of voters across different dimensions. Jan ki Baat will continue to serve the people of India by accurately reflecting their public opinion, because we believe- ‘People’s interest is National interest. We welcome suggestions on [email protected] .

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sagarika mitra
sagarika mitrahttp://jankibaat.com
SAGARIKA MITRA is the Content Head of JAN KI BAAT. She is broadcast journalist with 10 years of experience behind her. She has worked in leadership roles in TV Channels like REPUBLIC TV & TIMES NOW and was in the CORE TEAM of REPUBLIC TV since its launch in May 2017. She joined as Deputy News Editor and become the youngest Output Editor of REPUBLIC TV at the age of 30. She has led the Editorial Desk at REPUBLIC TV, has anchored primetime English News bulletins and done special reporting projects during her stint at REPUBLIC TV. At JAN KI BAAT, she drives the Content Strategy on digital and TV and leads the team in editorialising, producing & executing JANTA KA MUKADMA on INDIA NEWS

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