Free electricity & ‘Kejriwal’ factor over power ‘outsider’ candidate narrative of BJP
Pradeep Bhandari’s Jan Ki Baat conducted the exit poll on Rajinder nagar by-poll on june 23. The by-poll was conducted by team Jan Ki Baat with a sample size of 2000 using Jan Ki Baat probability map of outcome model. Representative sampling with face to face interviews have been conducted by team Jan Ki Baat across 190 booths in the constituency.
Polling underway in #RajinderNagar By-Poll in Delhi. Stay-tuned for @jankibaat1 Exit-Poll on the prestigious By-Poll at 6.30 PM. #JKBRajinderNagarPoll @BJP4Delhi @AamAadmiParty pic.twitter.com/TqzEzXiR0f
— Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)🇮🇳 (@pradip103) June 23, 2022
Reasons for AAP’s lead in the Exit Poll
1) More than 60% women chose AAP over BJP
2) Complete elimination of Congress helping AAP maintain more than 50% vote share
3) AAP getting major chunk of lower middle class votes, & becomes a major choice for slum dwellers & residents in JJ colony
4) BJP not able to pull more than 10%/ of AAP votes which helps BJP cross 36% vote share.
5) Free electricity , & provision of day to day welfare benefits help Kejriwal govt receive more than 50% of popular vote.
Expected Vote Share (%)
AAP 52-58
BJP 40- 37
INC 3-2
Others 5-3
Pradeep Bhandari: We have started the preparations for Jan Ki Baat Exit Poll on Rajinder By-Poll. Exit poll will release on 23rd June 2022 post 6 PM.#RajinderNagar #RajinderNagarPoll #PradeepBhandari #JanKiBaatPoll@pradip103 pic.twitter.com/rXwAmiZTY2
— Jan Ki Baat (@jankibaat1) June 18, 2022
Area Wise Prediction
1) New Rajinder Nagar
bjp lead
2) Old Rajinder Nagar
close contest between BJP & AAP
3) Pandav Nagar
AAP lead
4) Inderpuri
AAP lead
5) Sat Nagar
AAP lead
6) 100 quarter
AAP lead
7) Naraina Vihar
Contest between BJP & AAP
8) Naraina Village
AAP lead
9) Das Ghara
AAP lead
10) Todapur
Close contest, AAP lead
11) JJ Colony
AAP lead
Pradeep Bhandari’s Analysis
Free electricity & provision of day to day welfare benefits have proved to be swing factors for AAP in Rajinder Nagar by-poll. The BJP though fielded a local candidate with considerable hold & presence could not capture the popular vote which prefered the welfare benefits provided by Kejriwal govt over a ‘ local candidate’. The data& observations from ground suggest that yet again women have become the decision makers in determining the fate of an electoral outcome. Complete elimination of Congress in Delhi gives AAP a decisive edge in a bipolar election. Whereas BJP has received more votes in upper middle class, & Punjabi dominated clusters, AAP has received majority of its vote from lower middle class demography making it the first preference of urban poor in Delhi.
Polling underway in #RajinderNagar By-Poll in Delhi. Stay-tuned for @jankibaat1 Exit-Poll on the prestigious By-Poll at 6.30 PM. #JKBRajinderNagarPoll @BJP4Delhi @AamAadmiParty pic.twitter.com/TqzEzXiR0f
— Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)🇮🇳 (@pradip103) June 23, 2022
Interacting with residents of #RajinderNagar assembly constituency. This prestigious By- Poll is important for both @BJP4Delhi & @AamAadmiParty in context of the Future Political Narrative in Delhi. Watch @jankibaat1 on 23rd June for the Exit Poll on Rajinder Nagar. pic.twitter.com/Nxq3p8HMpD
— Pradeep Bhandari(प्रदीप भंडारी)🇮🇳 (@pradip103) June 20, 2022
Demography Wise Prefence
1) Valmiki Community
1st preference – AAP
2) Punjabi Community
1st prefence – BJP
3) Poorvanchal Community
1st preference – AAP
4) Others
Divided between BJP & AAP
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