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Free electricity & ‘Kejriwal’ factor over power ‘outsider’ candidate narrative of BJP

Pradeep Bhandari’s Jan Ki Baat conducted the exit poll on Rajinder nagar by-poll on june 23. The by-poll was conducted by team Jan Ki Baat with a sample size of 2000 using Jan Ki Baat probability map of outcome model. Representative sampling with face to face interviews have been conducted by team Jan Ki Baat across 190 booths in the constituency.

Reasons for AAP’s lead in the Exit Poll

1) More than 60% women chose AAP over BJP

2) Complete elimination of Congress helping AAP maintain more than 50% vote share

3) AAP getting major chunk of lower middle class votes, & becomes a major choice for slum dwellers & residents in JJ colony

4) BJP not able to pull more than 10%/ of AAP votes which helps BJP cross 36% vote share.

5) Free electricity , & provision of day to day welfare benefits help Kejriwal govt receive more than 50% of popular vote.

Expected Vote Share (%)

AAP 52-58

BJP 40- 37

INC 3-2

Others 5-3

Area Wise Prediction

1) New Rajinder Nagar

bjp lead

2) Old Rajinder Nagar

close contest between BJP & AAP

3) Pandav Nagar

AAP lead

4) Inderpuri

AAP lead

5) Sat Nagar

AAP lead

6) 100 quarter

AAP lead

7) Naraina Vihar

Contest between BJP & AAP

8) Naraina Village

AAP lead

9) Das Ghara

AAP lead

10) Todapur

Close contest, AAP lead

11) JJ Colony

AAP lead

Pradeep Bhandari’s Analysis

Free electricity & provision of day to day welfare benefits have proved to be swing factors for AAP in Rajinder Nagar by-poll. The BJP though fielded a local candidate with considerable hold & presence could not capture the popular vote which prefered the welfare benefits provided by Kejriwal govt over a ‘ local candidate’. The data& observations from ground suggest that yet again women have become the decision makers in determining the fate of an electoral outcome. Complete elimination of Congress in Delhi gives AAP a decisive edge in a bipolar election. Whereas BJP has received more votes in upper middle class, & Punjabi dominated clusters, AAP has received majority of its vote from lower middle class demography making it the first preference of urban poor in Delhi.


Demography Wise Prefence

1) Valmiki Community

1st preference – AAP

2) Punjabi Community

1st prefence – BJP

3) Poorvanchal Community

1st preference – AAP

4) Others

Divided between BJP & AAP



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