Karnataka has become a ferocious battlefield for three political parties, namely BJP (Bhartiya Janta Party), INC (Indian National Congress), and JDS, i.e. Janata Dal (secular) who will lock horns on 12th May 2018. As the Karnataka election 2018 is getting nearer, I, Pradip Bhandari, founder of ‘Jan Ki Baat’, reached different constituencies to conversate with the natives. All the activists are doing every possible promise to please the locals. Presently, it’s not viable to predict any winner as the battle is somewhat tougher than the expected.
Right from the beginning, the politics has always been an unpredictable game with many ups and downs. I went to different constituencies where I found severe issues, including improper water supply and electricity, poor infrastructure, etc. that residents are facing for a very long time. Talking with reference to BJP, it owns a major trump card, named Narendra Modi that can easily make the tables turned around. It is even said that if BJP is tea, Congress is coffee, and JDS is milk, then it would be quite interesting to see how strong the milk will be.
Bringing Ground Zero from Tumkur Mysore, I found that the city has a popular candidate against a young face of BJP. For an apt political analysis, I even went to Gubbi constituency near Tumkur. Here, I found there is a clear polarization of Lingayats behind BJP and Vokkaligas behind JDS.
Coming to the Tiptur region, there is a fierce battle between BJP and JDS. The residents have an urge to fix minimum price of coconut and also demanded that lake water should be available for their consumption first.
As far as strong zones of these parties are concerned, Congress has a strong foothold in areas like koratagere, Sira, Madugiri, etc. On the other hand, BJP is strong in Tumkur and Tiptur. And, JDS is in Kurigal Gubbi.
Ruling for five years in Karnataka, I found that the government hasn’t done much for Varuna. Most of the farmers started leaving the village and some of them already left. The reason behind this is nothing but improper water supply.
For BJP, Narendra Modi is the biggest strength. Former CM Yedurappa is famous in Lingayat community. On the other hand, Kumaraswamy has traditional strong pockets. Siddaramaiah’s government holds a strong position in places where his rice scheme reached.
After getting proper analysis from different constituencies, I observed that JDS seems to be quite strong in Villages and Dalit community.
As per the ground reports conducted by me, here are the ten things that you should keep in mind while analyzing the upcoming Karnataka election.
Ground report by Pradip Bhandari
1. Currently, this is a grey election, thus there is no clear winner. Though, BJP has its trump card Narendra Modi but he has to be backed by strong local candidates.
2. Kumarswamy is a major factor, however, Chief Minister Siddaramaih has grassroot presence. This makes it a grey election. According to me, it is an ” election of equivalence”. The pendulum can swing in any direction. Now I bring you the best ground zero report from Tumkur, Mysore, Hasan.
3. Tumkur city has a popular candidate of Congress Rafiq Ahmad against a possible young face of BJP. Thus, it becomes important to take care of some possible infighting here. The most common problem is water. Most of 400 borewell needs to be repaired. Modi factor may work.
4. Gubbi near Tumkur is a fight between JDS and BJP. Here, the main problem is water. furthermore, local MLA of JDS is quite popular. There is clear polarization of Lingayats behind BJP and Vokkaligas behind this JDS. An attempt to divide Lingayats is at least not working in this region.
5. Tiptur is again a battle between BJP and JDS. Tiptur is a unique constituency, it hardly votes anyone back again. Here, the main issues include fix minimum price of coconut,and use water of lake near village for local consumption first; send to city later.
6. Constituencies where Congress is strong is Sira, Madugiri, Koratagere. While BJP is in Tiptur,Tumkur rural, and JDS in Kurigal Gubbi. However, other 11 seats is an even battle.
7. It is well-known that Siddaramaiah ji home constituency is Varuna. However, in the constituency, farmers are in bad state and most work has been done only for those who were supporters of Congress. Many have started to leave village because of lack of water for cultivation and presence of middlemen.This is why he is contesting from chamundeshwari.
8. Congress is strong in Nanjangud assembly Constituency. On the other hand, JDS seems to have strong presence in villages. However, water for cultivation not there. Lingayats hold the key.
9. Arkalgud in Hasan is a fight between Congress and JDS. BJP is weak here. Gowda’s more inclined to support JDS here. They said Congress has not done anything substantial here.
10. For BJP, Narendra Modi is the biggest strength. Yedurapppa ji is popular in Lingayat community while Kumarswamy ji has traditional strong pockets. Siddaramaih ji has hold in places where his rice scheme has reached. The key will also lie in other micro cast calculation.
Undoubtedly, the political fight is quite tough in almost every constituency. However, things can change with the time.
No matter, whatever the results will be, but the Karnataka election 2018 is going to be an epic battle between BJP, INC, and JDS.
This is my 9th election after having covered 8 consecutive elections accurately. I am travelling over 200 constituencies to get the most accurate prediction of the upcoming Karnataka election 2018.
The largest Opinion Poll with Sample size of 1 Lakh will be announced by Jan Ki Baat between 4th May and 8th May, having partnership with Republic TV and Suvarna channel. So stay tuned. To get exclusive updates, best ground report and the upcoming poll information, follow ‘Jan Ki Baat’ on Facebook and Twitter.