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Pradeep Bhandari releases Jan ki baat Uttrakhand survey. BJP could win if elections are held today

45% SAY BJP COULD WIN IF ELECTIONS ARE TO BE HELD TODAY IN UTTARAKHAND, 43% SAY CONG COULD FORM GOVT

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JAN KI BAAT Founder & psephologist Pradeep Bhandari has released the JAN KI BAAT UTTARAKHAND POLL which shows BJP could win if elections are held today in the state. The survey was conducted between 20th September – 26th September using the PROBABILITY MAP OF OUTCOME based on random sampling through a representative sample from the ground involving one to one and one to many interactions. Here are the findings of the #JanKiBaatUttarakhandPoll:

TAKEAWAY 1: BJP COULD WIN IF ELECTIONS ARE TO BE HELD TODAY IN UTTARAKHAND

1) Who will win if elections are to be held today in Uttarakhand?

BJP 45%

Congress 43%

AAP 12%

ANALYSIS:- 

1) 45% RESPONDENTS SAYS BJP COULD FORM GOVT IF ELECTIONS ARE TO BE HELD TODAY IN UTTARAKHAND

2) THE COMPETITION IS PRETTY STIFF IN UTTARAKHAND. WHILE BJP HAS AN EDGE, 43% RESPONDENTS BELIEVE CONGRESS COULD ALSO FORM GOVT

3) AAP IS IN THE TRIANGULAR CONTEST IN UTTARAKHAND, 12% RESPONDENTS SAY AAP COULD ALSO WIN

 

TAKEAWAY 2: MOST BELIEVE THERE’S NO ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST CHIEF MINISTER

2) Is there anti incumbency against the current Chief Minister?

Yes 36%

No 45 %

Don’t know 19%

ANALYSIS:-

1) WHILE CONG & AAP HAVE ACCUSED THE BJP OF PUSHING U’KHAND INTO INSTABILITY BY CHANGING ITS CHIEF MINISTERS FREQUENTLY, 45% RESPONDENTS SAYS THERE’S NO ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST CURRENT BJP CM PUSHKAR DHAMI

2) 36% RESPONDENTS HAVE SAID THERE IS ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST PUSHKAR DHAMI & 19% SAID THEY DON’T KNOW.

3) AS WE INCH CLOSER TO ELECTIONS, THIS 19% UNDECIDED VOTER COULD SWAY EITHER IN FAVOUR OR AGAINST THE BJP & THAT COULD BE A MAKE OR BREAK FACTOR

TAKEAWAY 3: NO ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST BJP IN UTTARAKHAND

3) Is there Anti Incumbency against the party in power?

Yes 32%

No 55%

Don’t know 13%

ANALYSIS:-

1) MODI FACTOR SEEMS TO HELPING THE BJP DESPITE ANGER OVER THE FACT THAT THE PARTY HAS CHANGED CMs 3 TIMES

2) 55% RESPONDENTS TO THE SURVEY SAY THERE’S NO ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST BJP AS OF NOW

3) 32% RESPONDENTS SAY YES, THERE’S ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST BJP WHILE 13% SAY THEY DON’T KNOW

TAKEAWAY 4: TICKET DISTRIBUTION WILL BE A KEY FACTOR AS 60% SAY THERE’S ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST MLAs

4) Is there ANTI INCUMBENCY against MLAs?

Yes 60%

No 28%

Don’t know 12%

ANALYSIS:-

1) 60% SAY THERE’S ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST MLAs, WHILE ONLY 28% SAY THERE’S NO ANTI INCUMBENCY

2) TICKET DISTRIBUTION WILL BE VERY CRITICAL FOR THE BJP AS THERE’S ANGER AGAINST SITTING MLAs

 

TAKEAWAY 5: HARISH RAWAT IS MOST POPULAR CHIEF MINISTERIAL CHOICE FOR PEOPLE OF UTTARAKHAND

5) If elections were to be held today who will be your chief minister’s choice?

H.Rawat 40%

P. Dhami 25%

A. Kothiyal 7%

G.Godial 2%

A. Baluni 19%

No Opinion 7%

ANALYSIS:-

1) 40% RESPONDENTS SAY HARISH RAWAT IS THEIR PREFERRED CM CHOICE BUT WHEN IT COMES TO PARTY, BJP STILL HAS AN EDGE

2) BJP’S PUSHKAR DHAMI WHO IS THE CURRENT CM HAS BACKING OF 25% RESPONDENTS WHILE 19% SAY SENIOR LEADER OF BJP ANIL BALUNI IS THEIR PREFERRED CM CHOICE

3) 9% SAY AAM AADMI PARTY’S AJAY KOTHIYAL IS THEIR CM CHOICE

TAKEAWAY 6: UNEMPLOYMENT & HEALTH ARE TOP ELECTION ISSUES IN UTTARAKHAND

6) What are the top election issues in Uttarakhand?

Unemployment 43%

Education 13%

Covid 6%

Infrastructure 9%

Health + water 20%

Others 9%

ANALYSIS:-

1) 43% RESPONDENTS TO THE POLL SAY UNEMPLOYMENT IS THE TOP ELECTION ISSUE. THE SAME SET OF RESPONDENTS ALSO ADDED THAT MIGRATION HAPPENS BECAUSE OF UNEMPLOYMENT & THE ISSUE ONLY AGGRAVATED DURING THE PANDEMIC

2) 20% SAYS HEALTH & WATER IS TOP ELECTION ISSUE, FOLLOWED BY EDUCATION WHERE 13% SAY IT IS THEIR TOP ELECTION ISSUE

TAKEAWAY 7: FREQUENTLY CHANGEING CMs WILL HURT BJP

7) Will the frequent change in leadership hurt the BJP?

Yes 64%

No 36 %

ANALYSIS:-

A) WHILE MAJORITY OF RESPONDENTS SAY THERE’S NO ANTI INCUMBENCY AGAINST BJP, 64% BELIEVE THAT FREQUENTLY CHANGING CMs WILL HAMPER THE PARTY’S CHANCES IN THE RUN UP TO ELECTIONS

TAKEAWAY 8: 53% RESPONDENTS ARE HAPPY WITH THE WAY BJP GOVT HAS HANDLED COVID SITUATION

8) Are you satisfied with Govt’s Covid handling?

Yes 53%

No 47%

TOP FINDINGS OF CASTE BASED PARTY PREFERENCE IN UTTARAKHAND

BRAHMINS

1) 62% of Brahmin voters prefer BJP & 34% of Brahmin voters prefer CONG

THAKURS

https://twitter.com/jankibaat1/status/1444200879670784001?s=19

2) While 50% Thakurs prefer BJP, Harish Rawat’s popularity & personal political capital is resulting in 47% of Thakurs saying Congress is their preferred party of choice

OBC

https://twitter.com/jankibaat1/status/1444201577233805316?s=19

3) 62% OBC respondents want to see BJP form government again, 32% say their choice is Congress & 7% are will AAP

SCHEDULED CASTE

4) 59% respondents from SC community prefer Congress, 34% prefer BJP & 7% prefer AAP

MUSLIMS

5) 78% respondents from Muslim community want Congress to form govt, interestingly there’s a slight divide with 14% saying AAP is their choice

 

 

FINAL CONCLUSIONS OF THE JAN KI BAAT UTTARAKHAND POLL

1) Majority of respondents to the survey feel BJP can return to power, but competition stiff

2) Harish Rawat is the most preferred Chief Ministerial Choice , followed by Pushkar Dhami & Anil Baluni

3) AAP is eating into Congress votes in Uttarakhand

4) Frequent change in CM face has been a pull down factor for BJP in Uttarkhand

5) Brahmin voters prefer BJP over Congress

6) 60% feel Sitting MLAs are facing anti incumbency 

 

 

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Sombir Sharma
Sombir Sharma - Journalist

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