Pradeep Bhandari released JAN KI BAAT’s first Opinion Poll for Karnataka Elections 2023 on ASIANET-SUVARNA NEWS. JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll projection says BJP will emerge as the single largest party with a seat-share range of 98-109 seats. In this nail-biter election, as per JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll, Congress is projected to get anywhere between 89 – 97 seats and JDS could end up getting seat-share in the range of 25-29.
VOTE-SHARE PROJECTION
BJP is projected to get a vote-share of 37%- 39% in Karnataka Elections 2023. Congress could get projected vote- share in the range of 38% – 40% and JDS’ projected vote-share is expected to be anywhere between 16% – 18% in Karnataka Elections 2023, vote share less than 2018.
BJP TO GET MORE VOKKALIGA VOTES than 2018?
While BJP is projected to strongly consolidate LINGAYAT votes, JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll says the saffron party could better its performance by a slender margin in the Vokkaliga dominated belt of Old Mysore region & win at least 12 seats there. Meanwhile, Congress is projected to win 23 seats and JDS is projected to win 22 seats in Old Mysore region. In Coastal Karnataka, JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll projection shows that BJP is set to repeat 2018’s stellar performance and could end up winning in 15-16 seats out of 19 seats in the region.
CASTE-WISE PROJECTION
Lingayats and Marathas are strongly rallying behind BJP in Karnataka. As per JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll – 70% amongst Lingayats prefer BJP over other parties.
While 70% amongst Vokkaligas are with JDS, BJP could create a small dent. As per JAN KI BAAT Opinion Poll 20% among Vokkaliga community could go with BJP this and Congress could just be preferred by 10% Vokkaliga voters. Meanwhile, in the ST community, 55% could go with Congress, 30% with BJP & 15% with JDS. In the SC community LAMBANI SC’ s are rallying 70% with Congress , while Non LAMBANI SC are divided between the Congress, BJP, & JDS in the ration 55%, 30%,15% respectively
15 TOP HIGHLIGHTS OF JAN KI BAAT OPINION POLL ON KARNATAKA ELECTIONS 2023
1) BJP is more likely to form government in Karnataka, could emerge as single largest party
2) Congress is giving BJP stiff competition in Karnataka but may fail to cross 100
3) BJP could get more Vokkaliga votes this time, it may cause a dent in JDS’ Vokkaliga bastions along with Congress.
4) JDS projected to get less than 30 seats this time in Karnataka Elections 2023
5) Marathas & Lingayats are expected to rally behind BJP in Karnataka
6) Congress is the first preference of SC/STs . BJP is making a dent in SC votes only at places where candidates have a considerable influence.
7) In Karnataka, more than 80% in Muslim community could vote for Congress
8) More than 60% among OBCs could vote for BJP, & more than
9) First time & second time voter’s first preference is BJP majorly because of PM Narendra Modi’s image
10) JDS stronghold – Old Mysore region could see BJP & Congress creating a dent
11) BJP’s lead in Mumbai Karnataka & Coastal Karnataka is helping BJP get more seats than Congress
12) JDS vote-share is expected to be less than the vote-share it got in 2018
13) Caste & Candidates are dominant narratives in Karnataka Elections
14) INC is increasing its seat-share more than 2018 because of the increase in seats in Old Mysore& Hyderabad Karnataka.
15) BJP expected to get more seats& vote share in Old Mysore than it got in the region in the 2018 assembly elections
DETAILS OF OPINION POLL
The above findings and projections for Karnataka Elections 2023 are based on a constituency wise opinion survey conducted by JAN KI BAAT between March 15th, 2023 and April 11th, 2023 with a sample size of 20,000.
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